My copy of Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan, a book about risk and uncertainty, was almost destroyed by a freak hurricane (at least it was freaky for a Brit who had then just arrived in the US). Almost, but not destroyed: I was able to use it to write my last post which concluded with Taleb’s advice that instead of investing in trying to predict the problems we may face in the future, we should invest in preparedness. Continue reading Raincoats & bad schools: organisations in the internet age
I started reading Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan in May last year. I took it to the Delfest music festival where we’d been promised bluegrass and sunshine. A hurricane tore down the camp and flooded the fields. The book sank in the swamp, was bravely rescued, and has since dried out. I started reading it again the other day.
Taleb’s central thesis is that we are much worse at predicting events than we think we are. In fact we massively overestimate our capacity for prediction. Continue reading Fat people & billionaires